And its now down to one.  The race for Governor among Democrats started off with a flourish, as many of the state’s leading Democrats threw their hat in the ring or at least were rumored to be considered running for the state’s highest office.  Now, however, with San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropping out, one lone  candidate remains – Attorney General Jerry Brown.

How did Jerry Brown essentially win the Democratic primary without a proverbial shot being fired (in the form of a television ad)? 

Most of the credit goes to Jerry Brown.  It turns out that he is just that good and that it is no accident as to why he has been such a successful candidate and gotten elected so often.  He started the race as the frontrunner and did an extremely effective job at consolidating that position – he raised money with a steely discipline and spent little of it thus gaining a huge cash advantage over any potential rival; he effectively used a “Rose Garden” strategy of using his position as Attorney General to attract favorable media attention on relevant and popular issues of the day, such as most recently taking on Wall Street banks; he did not make any major mistakes, and he did not engage his opponents and give them an opening, even when the race had narrowed to a two-way race.   So, congratulations, Jerry Brown, you earned this victory.

We just had a major development this week in the Democratic race for Governor of California – Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa decided not to run. This decision did not come out of the blue, as there had been an increasing number of reports suggesting that he may not run. Still, it is somewhat surprising given the fact that he would have been considered a serious contender. The reality is a politician does not get too many opportunities to run for an open seat governorship in their lifetime, so this could not have been an easy choice for Villaraigosa.

What is very surprising to me, however, is the conventional wisdom that seems to be forming around the idea that Villaraigosa’s departure from the race greatly benefits Jerry Brown (led by veteran Sac Bee columnist Dan Walters in his June 23 column, “Villaraigosa’s Departure Boosts Brown”).

Let me be very clear about my opinion of this growing consensus: I could not disagree more with this misguided and unfounded theory.

Here is why I feel so strongly about this.

There's more...

Here's something to think about as we head to the California Democratic convention in San Diego. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research recently conducted a survey and focus groups in Western states (excluding the coastal states of California, Oregon, and Washington) for Democracy Corps. The purpose of this research (there will be more research over the next two years) is to get a better understanding of voters in what has become a battleground region, with as many as 5 states in play for the presidential campaign (AZ, CO, MT, NV and NM) -- the new "midwest", if you will (but with mountains and without the water).

The findings were very interesting, and several specific findings are particularly relevant to California and what our research in this state has shown.

In the research in Western states, we found that Western life is defined by an attachment to the land. The land provides both recreation, escape and, for some, a livelihood. It is what voters believe is most unique about living in the West.