Poll: Pavley Has Solid Lead in Key State Senate Race

Hot off the press: a telephone survey of 404 likely November 2012 voters completed this month in the newly drawn California Senate District 27 shows Democrat Fran Pavley with a nine point lead over Republican Todd Zink heading into the general election contest this fall, says Pavley's pollster Paul Good of Goodwin Simon Strategic Research.

Here's Goodwin's memo:

"As shown, Pavley leads Zink by 42% to 33% in an unaided first vote question. This includes a 24 point lead among the crucial Decline to State segment of the electorate.

"While primary election voters divide evenly in the poll, as they did in the actual June primary, those who did not vote in June but are likely to vote in November (based on previous voting history) support Pavley by 23 points 46% for Pavley to 23% for Zink.

"A follow-up question matched up positive paragraphs about each candidate drawn directly from their website and/or primary campaign mail. The paragraphs were intended to be as fair as possible to both sides. The result found Pavley's lead expanded to 14 points (51% to 37%). We then read voters positive and negative statements about both candidates - including likely GOP attacks on Pavley as a tax and spend liberal and as a environmenta extremist - and found her lead growing even more: 54% for Pavley and 37 for Zink.

"The point is that Pavley starts with a solid lead with the November electorate, and expands that lead when voters learn about her accomplishments i creating jobs, protecting the environment, stopping domestic violence, and more Pavley should win this seat in November." The poll must be music to the ears of Senate Democrats, who are hoping to win a 2/3 majority in November.

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