Maldo for LG? Who Cares? John Laird Should Be District's Next Senator

Governor Schwarzenegger's appointment of State Sen. Abel Maldonado is a good thing for Golden State Democrats. Yes, he may be filling a Democratic seat (John Garamendi is off to Congress). And yes, it will vault a relatively obscure Republican into the top echelon of state officeholders. But the honeymoon is likely to be short.

For starters, Maldo will be toast in a Republican primary. His budget vote makes him persona non grata among the right-wingers that dominate the GOP primary (remember, he lost to one of the lamest Republicans running for office in 2006, Tony Strickland). Sen. Jeff Denham, the frontrunner in the GOP Lite Gov. contest, is a favorite among conservatives for bucking then Senate President pro Tem Don Perata. On top of that, getting appointed by Schwarzenegger, who also is unpopular among GOP conservatives, won't help Maldo much either in a primary. In fact, upon hearing the rumor yesterday, Flash Report publisher Jon Fleishman declared "someone get me a barf bag."

Even in the unlikely event that Maldo survives an ugly primary, the two leading Democratic challengers, State Sen. Dean Florez and LA City Council Member Janice Hahn, both are far closer to California's political center than the anti-choice, anti-environment Maldonado.

But enough about him.

Maldonado's appointment is a gift to Democrats, who are now poised to capture his coastal Senate seat. Dems hold a narrow registration edge (41-34.5 over Republicans) but DTS voters carry the day here. They comprise 23 percent of the district's registered voters. The trend is going our way; six years ago, registration was dead even.

The likely candidate will be former Assemblymember John Laird, the brilliant former chair of the Assembly Budget Committee who was termed out of office this year.  Laird lives just a few miles beyond the district lines, More voters live above the Monterey/San Luis Obispo line than below it. Laird represented more of the northern three counties than any other assemblymember and carried them by 70 percent the last time his name was on the ballot.

The expected Republican will be Assembly Republican Leader Sam Blakeslee. Once known for being moderate on environmental and social issues but conservative on economics, Blakeslee has taken a sharp turn to the right since heading his conservative caucus. He also has had some run-in's with Gov. Schwarzenegger, Blakeslee is not assured a free ride in his primary either, though Republicans may coalesce about him. His candidacy will likely force him to step down from the Assembly Republican leadership, leaving them weaker heading into this year's tough budget negotiations.

All in all, the Madlo nomination may be a win-win for Democrats, particularly if they gear up quickly to capture his seat -- and assuming the Senate confirms him, which is far from a sure thing.

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