New York's Primary Move Makes California Primary Even More Important

New York Governor Elliott Spitzer has signed legislation moving up the Empire State's presidential primary to February 5th -- the same day as California.
 
Conventional wisdom would tell you that will dilute the Golden State's attempt to increase its influence. After all, New York is also delegate rich.
 
But look beyond the numbers.
 
Senator Hillary Clinton should be a shoo-in to carry the state she represents in the U.S. Senate and carried overwhelmingly in her last re-election race. And given the expensive media rates (they rival California's) in the NY Metro area, I'm betting that no one will dare to go head to head with her on her home turf.
 
Sen. Obama might have a chance, but why take the risk when he has a much better shot in California? The same can be said for Sen. John Edwards, who is popular here, particularly among organized labor. Second-tier candidates, like Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd, would also be wise to set up camp in the Golden State to capitalize on any surprising bounce they get in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which both precede California's contest.
 
If I were in the delegate counting business (and trust me, the major campaigns already have folks figuring out the math), I would certainly be allocating my dollars to California. Unlike New York, the state is clearly up for grabs, as the recent Field and PPIC polls showed.
 
So even though New York has moved up its date, California may well be the state that determines the next nominee, just as the architects of the plan to move up the primary intended.

Print this report | Send to a friend

About Steven Maviglio | All Reports by Steven Maviglio

---

Browse in :

All > Reports

There are no comments attached to this item.

Ratings