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Governor's Race: The Early Line on 2010
Now that the election is over, the talk of the town has quickly turned to the post-Arnold era 2010 gubernatorial election.
Loretta Sanchez 50-1 -- The Orange County Congresswoman opened a committee last year and made some noise about running. She has some appeal as a Latina with Washington credentials. But now that Democrats have taken over the House, it's difficult to imagine that Sanchez will give up her seat at a longshot run at the Governorship.
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Steve -- You listed all the obvious elected officials, but do you see any gazillionaire types making a run for Gov? Any more actors, like, oh, Ben Affleck? (A girl can dream...)
Not with such a strong lineup of Democratic pols. Plus, haven't we had enough of actors??!!
By the by, do oddsmakers usually work for the athletes? Not that I think your odds are off, except maybe the Gav. I gotta think that he would avoid a confrontation with Villaraigosa and he would also be a great candidate for Senator. We need to ensure that we have a strong candidate for Senate in 2010 as the rumors about Arnold running have been fast and furious. Hey, Senator Nunez wouldn't sound too bad, either, would it? Speaking of a talent for legislating...
And Steve, thanks for your good work with the Angelides campaign. I know that this race was an incredibly challenging situation, with Arnold co-opting the Democratic message. It's great that you were able to get involved, even if it might have been too little too late.
Too early for this stuff, but here's my two-cents.
Villaraigosa blew his chance with the LA schools takeover and hopefully the party won't forget how much help he wasn't to Angelides. Nunez too, though the party wasn't much help either.
Look for Garamendi and O'Connell to move in from the outside.
And yes, you did forget the non-pols...
Steve indirectly makes the best point. I think once Villaraigosa starts running, his campaign will run out of steam quickly as people realize how weak his qualifications, biography, and achievements really are in comparison to some of our other veteran lawmakers. Lockyer has an amazing record of service, as does Garamendi, and Gavin could be putting us all on about not running. LA in general, and LAUSD specifically, will hang Villaraigosa - and the greatest indignity is that he fought to get that albatross around his neck, all the while pissing off the teachers' union.
I think Randy & Matt are sniffing some crazy glue.
Even if Villaraigosa campaigned everyday for Angelides you'd see him lose -- so let's not play that game.
Everyone across the state saw the LA Mayor campaign hard for good progressive propositions and even lead the IE campaign for John Chiang.
As for the LAUSD being an albatross -- i suspect our fellow bloggers aren't familiar with Ray Cortines.
I suspect the late endorsement of Angelides will anger Sac insiders (of which this blog attracts disproportionate numbers for obvious reasons), but I can't imagine that will resonate in the minds of the lay voter in the slightest four years down the road.
If Gavin and Antonio run against each other, you will find surprisingly strong support *for Gavin* in Los Angeles. Wouldn't the party be better off if these two focused on the Senate seats, and let Garamendi or O'Connell be governor? GN and AV would be one hell of a dynamic duo in Washington.
ok- I know you will all laugh at me, but having worked on the Treasurer's campaign as a 17 year old, I believe in his vision for California. I believe he should give it another shot in 2010, when he most likely wont have to face an Actor with 100% name recognition. I think its fair to say that the Treasurer would have won if facing a non-famous Republican. Anyway, if Treaurer Angelides decides to give it another shot, I'll be behind him from the onnset.
kmoros -- While Angelides may well have won if he had faced a Republican who was neither an incumbent nor a global superstar married to a Kennedy, there is little appetite in the party for a re-run. Of course, if he chooses to stay involved (and I hope he does, one way or another), it's always possible that things could change. (Nixon became president six years after losing the governorship, and vowing that the press would never have him to kick around anymore.) At this point, however, you'd have to say that the 2010 nomination is a very high mountain for Phil to climb.
Well, Steve, considering your prognostications in the governor's race et al ... :)
These are interesting but very flawed assessments.
Bill: I predicted all of the top of the ticket offices correctly. Which is more than I can say for your site!
Quick question on Brown... Is he able to be governor, what with term limits?
He was Governor before the term limits law went into effect. So yes, he can run. See the Oak Tribune article today for more details.
Steve, my friend, you are simply unbelievable! Your endless wrongheaded, misleading spin on my site and elsewhere was quite a performance. In addition to wasting my time, it bled your credibility, as I warned you privately.
And don't forget you picked Angelides to come back.
Oh, and as you know, I report tracking polls, accurately, leaving readers to make their own judgments. Those tracking polls included -- in fact, were mostly -- the Democratic tracking polls. As you know very well, having sat right next to me at the Thursday post-mortem as I described the process and never having disputed my reporting of the polls during the campaign.(Though you did trash the Field Poll, and constantly sent out those Mickey Mouse polls to credulous journos and bloggers who immediately published them.) I had no wrong "picks." There were a few races that were toss-ups.
If this site is going to succeed, it is going to have to be more than kneejerk partisan spin. I promoted it at the start expecting more of a broad-ranging, sophisticated discussion, not governorphil.com on steroids.
So Mr. Bradley, were you expecting everyone here to bash Angelides the way you and your friends were doing on NWN EVERY SINGLE DAY, on EVERY SINGLE POST? Sorry, but this is supposed to be a Democratic site! I must admit that I wasn't all that impressed with this site early on, but I think CMR has been getting better in offering good insight. At least here, I know where they're coming from, and I know their viewpoints... They don't hide their bias and pretend that it's "impartial, independent analysis", and I appreciate that.
Hmmm... This would be a really tough choice for me. While I've been a big fan of Villaraigosa since he won the LA Mayor's race last year, I've also been a big fan of Newsom since he stood up for marriage equality in early 2004. They're both such strong candidates... Hopefully one of them will ultimately step aside (and possibly run for Senate when Feinstein or Boxer retires?).
Oh, and thanks Mr. Maviglio, for including my Congresswoman on the list... I know that Loretta hasn't always been content with just being our Congresswoman in Central OC... Down here, we've heard the rumors as well. While on one hand, I'd love to see Loretta as our next Governor, on the other hand I don't want to lose her as my Representative. Besides, Loretta now has power in Washington... And a cozy seat on the Homeland Security Committee!
I called the governor's race accurately from the start, and at every turn.
In part because I knew the polls, and knew what was real and what was, at best, misleading BS.
If you can't handle the truth, you won't like it.
I do agree Newsom is stronger than Villaraigosa. The Hispanic vote is not that strong to but Villaraigosa in office, and Villaraigosa, despite his recent moves toward the center, still turns off a lot of moderate Democrats. Newsom's Care Not Cash strategy and the universal health care have both appeal to liberals and moderates, and will have a good track record come 2010, whereas we won't see anything with the Villaraigosa Subway to the Sea, nor will we see too much happen with the schools by the 2010 campaign.
December 4th Newsom announces his run for Governor. Confirmed. Smart money is elsewhere.
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