New California Majority Report Poll: Lara Leads Lowenthal in Senate District 33 Race

Democratic Assemblyman Ricardo Lara holds a narrow lead over fellow Democratic Assemblywoman Bonnie Lowenthal and Republican social worker Martha Flores-Gibson in the hotly-contested race for the newly-drawn Senate District 33 seat, according to a new poll conducted for the California Majority Report by Coral Gables, Florida-based pollsters Bendixen & Amandi.

Despite initial name ID below 30 percent, Lara  begins the race with a lead, both on the cold sample (Lara 29%, Lowenthal 23%, Flores-Gibson18%, with 30% Undecided) and after positive and negative messages are tested (Lara 31%,Lowenthal 26%, Flores-Gibson 23%, with 20% Undecided). 

According to the pollsters, "Assemblyman Lara has a solid base of support among Latinos and exhibits room for potential growth among Anglo voters once they are exposed to his biography. The theoretical name identification advantage for Assemblywoman Lowenthal is largely non-existent despite her and her ex-husband's service in the area. Flores-Gibson is almost completely unknown and receives virtually all of her support from the few Republicans in the District.

In addition to the State Senate race, the poll also notes that the lack of jobs is overwhelmingly the issue of greatest concern to voters in District 33, followed by the state's continuing challenges in dealing with severe budget deficits. Economic concerns have so clearly taken precedence over all other considerations, that traditional hot button issues including Immigration, public education, healthcare and taxes all poll in the single digits as the most important issue.

Even in the face of significant economic headwinds both Governor Jerry Brown and President Barack Obama maintain strong support in the district, this result taken together with the nearly 3 to 1 Democratic advantage on party identification makes it clear that District 33 is a loyal Democratic constituency likely to choose primarily between the two Democratic candidates.

Demographic items worth keeping mind as a frame through which to view and understand the results:

• The ethnic breakdown of the sample is 48% Latino, 42% Anglo, 6% Asian/Other and 4% African American;

 

• The voter registration of the sample is 64% Registered Democrats as compared to only 22% Registered Republicans;

 

• There is a significant dichotomy in the educational attainment of likely voters with 52% of Latinos having a high school education or less, while 61% of white voters have a college degree or more;

 

• Among Latino voters, 72% are foreign born, with a staggering 53% of the sample being born in Mexico and 65% chose to be interviewed in Spanish; and

 

• The age range of likely voters in District 33 skews slightly younger, with the single largest voting block being 30-49 years old.

 

The findings and recommendations included in this report are based on a survey with a sample size of 500 likely voters in California Senate District 33. Likely voters were defined as those who have voted in at least 3 of the past 5 elections: 2010 General, 2010 Primary, 2008 General,2008 Primary (June) and 2008 Primary (February).  This new district is created from parts of the following cities: Long Beach, South Gate, Huntington Park, Walnut Park, Lakewood, Lynwood, Florence-Graham, Vernon, Bell Gardens, Bell, Paramount, Signal Hill, Maywood, and Cudahy. The sample for this survey was drawn from all of these cities, with a large portion coming from Long Beach (49 percent). All interviews were conducted over the telephone by professional bilingual interviewers.  Surveys took place in both English and Spanish, based on the preferred language of the subject and were conducted from September 16-19, 2011. This 500-person sample has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.

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