Lungren and Bono Mack and Calvert, Oh My

On Thursday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released its target list for the 2010 cycle.  Three out of the targeted 26 seats are in California.  The contests for the seats currently held by Bono Mack and Lungren are listed as "top races."  Calvert is in the second tier as an "emerging race." http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/dccc_announces_26_races_to_watch_in_2010/ 
 
Interestingly, the percentage of targeted seats that are in California is almost in direct correlation to the number of seats California has in Congress as a whole -- 11.5% of targeted races vs.12% in Congress as a whole.  The current partisan divide in our Congressional delegation is 34 Democrats to 19 Republicans.
 
Historically, in a midterm election, the party that controls the White House loses House seats.  Open seats are traditionally much more vulnerable to flipping and freshman are most vulnerable to a challenge.  At the moment, Democrats have 10 open House seats to defend, nationwide. And, there are 36 freshman Democrats. Given the hurdles the DCCC faces in retaining freshman and vulnerable Democratic seats, as well as defending open seats, it is quite a testament to the chances the DCCC must believe Democrats have of picking up the three seats in California, that they are targeting these three Republicans.
 
In Charlie Cook's latest House competitive race rankings, he lists the Lungren seat as "Lean Republican" and the Bono Mack and Calvert seats as "Likely Republican." http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-01-14_09-47-49.php.  The only California Democratic seats that Cook lists as "competitive" are Cardoza, Costa and Sanchez, which Cook says are "Likely Democratic" and McNerney, deemed by Cook to be "Lean Democratic."  In Cook's parlance, "Likely" means " [t]hese seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged."  And, "Lean" means "[t]hese are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage."
 
In 2008, Bono Mack beat her Democratic opponent 58% - 42%.  Obama won Bono Mack's district 52% - 47%.  In 2006, Feinstein won this district 51% - 45% and Angelides lost 31% - 65%.  Boxer captured this district in 2004, by a 50%-47% margin. Bush won the district in both 2000 and 2004.(all numbers are rounded to the closest whole number).
 
Calvert's seat was always thought to be heavily Republican, but in 2008, he nearly lost the seat 51% - 49%.  Calvert's 2008 opponent, Bill Hedrick, is running again this year.  Obama carried the district 50% - 49%.  In 2004, Bush won this district 59% - 40%.  In 2006, Feinstein lost this distict  46% - 48%.  In 2004, Boxer lost this district 45% - 51%.
 
Lungren won re-election in 2008 by a 50% - 44% margin.  That was a steep drop from his 60% take only two years before.  Obama won this district by a hair with a 49.3% - 48.8% margin.  Feinstein won the district in 2006 by a 49% - 46% margin. Boxer lost the seat in 2004 by a 5% margin.  Bush overwhelming won the district in 2004 by a 58% - 41% margin.
 
A key factor to consider when muling over the above information on Democratic performance is that both the Bono Mack and Calvert districts have been hit very hard by the burst of the housing bubble.  I suspect that due to a tremendous number of foreclosures in both districts, many who voted in 2008 may no longer reside in these districts.
 
While Calvert faces the same opponent as in 2008, Lungren and Bono Mack have new challengers.  Ami Bera is running against Lungren and Steve Pougnet is Bono Mack's challenger. Ami Bera is a physician who is the medical director of Sacramento County's Primary Health Care system.  http://beraforcongress.com/.  Steve Pougnet is the current Mayor of Palm Springs http://www.electpougnet.com/.  And, Bill Hedrick is a teacher, serving his fifth term on the Corona-Norco School Board. http://www.hedrickforcongress.com/#
 
Will Democrats pick up any of these seats?  It is much too early to tell, but it should invigorate California Democrats to know that the DCCC plans to be active in our state this year.  And, the fact that there are competitive seats is yet another reason that our state does not need "reform" of how Congressional seats are drawn. 

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