With Newsom Out, is Jerry Brown a Shoo-In?

November 03, 2009 @ 7:56 AM

Editor's Note: This piece was accidentally attributed to another author when first published. Steven Maviglio is the author. CMR regrets the error.

(This article originally appeared in the Capitol Morning Report)

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s abrupt decision to bow out of the gubernatorial race on Friday has left California Democrats without a declared candidate for the state’s highest office.

Conventional wisdom suggests that all-but-announced candidate Attorney General Jerry Brown now has a lock on the nomination. He’s got a barrel of cash on hand and is racking up endorsements while running his campaign out of his basement to conserve funds for the general election. According to the latest statewide polls, he enjoys solid leads over possible GOP rivals Meg Whitman, Steve Poizner, and Tom Campbell.

Those are all good reasons to think that no Democrat will emerge to challenge Brown in the primary. But over the weekend, there’s already been some noise in Democratic circles about possible challengers and murmurs of an Anybody-But-Jerry movement that could prevent a Brown coronation next June.

In the progressive blog Calitics.com, publisher Brian Leubitz noted “Brown could yet lose to a well-funded candidate, especially if that well-funded candidate was a minority, a woman, or a combination of the two.” Robert Cruikshank of the progressive group, the Courage Campaign, said a “contested primary will only make Brown a stronger candidate should he indeed win that primary - and more importantly, it would give Democrats and DTS voters a chance to weigh in on the future of California, to have a real discussion about how to fix a broken state.” Meanwhile, Dan Weitzman, a leading Democratic fundraiser in Sacramento, has started a “Draft Bob Hertzberg” campaign on Facebook.

But who could jump into the race at this point and give Brown a run for his money? Here are some possibilities.

Dianne Feinstein – California’s well-respected senior senator would relish nothing more than crowning her political career as Governor, and there are many Democrats who believe she is one of the few with the gravitas to right the ship that is California’s broken state government. But Feinstein didn’t make the move when she had the chance earlier this year, and is said to disdain campaigning. On top of that, she has a close relationship with Brown that would seemingly prevent her late entry into the contest. Feinstein also seems to be enjoying her perch in leadership roles in the U.S. Senate now that Democrats control that chamber and the executive branch. Still, crafting policy as governor of California is a heck of a better job than sitting through a subcommittee markup.

Bill Lockyer – With more than $9.3 million cash on hand in his political account, Sate Treasurer Bill Lockyer could instantly become a serious threat in a primary contest. The former State Senate President pro tem is more of an insider than Brown, but he possesses a similar independent streak. Lockyer has been outspoken lately about the state budget and the need for governmental reform, but does he have the fire in the belly needed to make a run for the keys to the horseshoe? Perhaps the possibility of going mano e mano with Brown will motivate him.

Maria Shriver – The Democratic spouse of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s name has been floated as a possible contender several times in the past few years, including Sunday by former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in his weekly newspaper column. Shriver would certainly electrify the contest, bringing celebrity and smarts to the race. But despite her political DNA, she has shown little interest in running for office. And having the baggage of being married to Arnold could sink her chances in a Democratic primary.

Bob Hertzberg – The former Assembly Speaker is the odds-on favorite to be Gov. Schwarzenegger’s choice for LG if John Garamendi wins his congressional race, as expected. That would give Hertzberg an instant statewide platform to make the leap to the Governor’s office. Hertzberg is well-connected in Democratic circles from his term as Speaker, and popular in LA as well. Leading the California Forward reform efforts and building a green energy business since he left Sacramento, Hertzberg also has a Rolodex of business leaders and labor leaders that could pony up the necessary millions necessary to make him competitive. Think of all the babies he could hug.

Jane Harman – The southern California congresswoman finished third when she ran for the governorship in 1998, garnering just 20 percent of the primary vote. But in the past decade, Harman has become more influential in D.C. and established herself as a solid progressive on social issues but more moderate on economics and security. Harman could tap personal wealth to finance her campaign, and with women accounting for nearly 60 percent of Democratic primary voters, she could have a gender edge as well. But Harman has her own set of troubles: the Washington Post reported last week that she is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.

Loretta Sanchez – Orange County Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez has kept one eye on the governorship for several years now. Sanchez has been a proven fundraiser in her Congressional career, and with a trifecta background of being a Latina, woman, and from Southern California, she’d add an interesting twist to the race. But she lacks a solid political base and little statewide support. A future run for the U.S. Senate is more likely.

John Garamendi – What, you say, won’t he just have been elected to Congress? Well, yes. But Garamendi is probably kicking himself over dropping out of the gubernatorial race to be one of 435 members of Congress. Could he step back into the race? In politics, anything is possible!