Prop 8: Marriage Equality Ban Trails by 17 Points Among Likely Voters, But Money Gap Concerns Opposition

Supporters of Prop 8, a measure to overturn California's inclusive marriage laws and write discrimination into the constitution, have been more successful at raising money than the opposition -- by a $16.2 million to $10.8 million difference.

This cash flow gap comes despite increasingly favorable polling showing the initiative slowly losing more and more favor with the electorate. Today's Field Poll shows a 17 point gap among likely voters, with 55 percent in favor and only 38 percent in opposition. The opposition includes 75 percent of Democrats and 56 of non-partisans, with 66 percent of Republicans in favor. 72 percent of conservatives favor the initiative, while 91 percent of liberals and 58 percent of middle-of-the-road voters oppose. Majority opposition also runs across the educational divide, with the most educated holding the strongest opposition.

Those are good numbers. Nevertheless, the No on Prop 8 campaign remains nervous.

"You’ve probably heard that the polls show our side ahead. Some are saying that victory for our side is a sure thing," Dale Kelly Bankhead, the campaign manager for the No on Prop 8 campaign said in a recent e-mail. "Don’t be fooled! This race is too close to call. The ugly truth we have learned from defeat after defeat in states across the country is that people lie on polls, especially about how they feel about LGBT people. In contest after contest, from Wisconsin to Colorado, we have gone into election day with polls showing our side with 7 to 10 points more support than we actually received at the ballot box."

If you can help, I'm sure the No on Prop 8 campaign would love to hear from you.

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