California Majority Report's 2010 Democratic Gubernatorial Race Rankings

November 19, 2007 @ 8:33 AM

As Governor Schwarzenegger officially enters lame duck status, chatter among Democrats about the 2010 gubernatorial race is already picking up. In this, our third rating guide, we've dropped five candidates, including several members of the California Congressional delegation who appear to be quite comfortable hanging around the nation's capital. And we have a new leader on the board as well as a new #2 and #3.

With a lockhold on the state's constitutional offices and the Legislature, Democrats are in a strong position to recapture the gubernatorial nomination. On the Republican side, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is drifting to the right to try to head off the expected run of State Senator Tom McClintock. That move will only help Democrats. In fact, LG Garamendi already has seized on Poizner's political positioning on Prop 93 to lash out at his weak performance in the wake of the San Diego fires.

In any case, here's our rundown for this quarter.

1. Attorney General Jerry Brown (Last Ranking: 2)
Almost by default, Jerry Brown has moved up to the top slot in this quarter's rankings. His former chief of staff, ex-Gov. Gray Davis, summed it up best last week at the Sacramento Press Club: no Brown has ever been defeated in a Democratic gubernatorial primary; not Jerry's dad, not Jerry's sister, and not Jerry. The early money says that tradition may continue. It's not that Jerry has been working it. Senate Republicans foolishly put him in the spotlight for his fight against global warming during last summer's budget fight. And even Arnold has helped him get headlines in the recently filed lawsuit against the EPA. Still, this isn't going to be a cakewalk. His position as AG handicaps him in the fundraising department. His quirky personality leaves him open to mistakes. And there's a certain faction of the Democratic electorate who aren't too excited about electing someone to the office who had it more than a decade ago. But in the meantime, Brown seems to be the man to beat.

2. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newson (Last Ranking: 3)
Newsom rolled to a virtually uncontested re-election victory earlier this month. And now he's promised to clean house and move forward with an ambitious agenda for the city by the bay. It will be interesting to watch his moves over the next few months. Newsom also weighed into the state's health care debate with a harshly critical attack of the Governor's health care plan. The party's progressive wing is in love with the guy, and he has high positive name ID among Democrats throughout the state. He's also got an Obama-like new generation air that would play well against Brown and Garamendi. And did I mention he can raise money too? Newsom will be a formidable candidate if he decides to take the plunge, but the does-he-have-the-fire-in-the-belly question still remains.

3. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (Last Ranking: 4)
Unlike Cruz Bustamante, Garamendi is using his office the way it should be used: delving into policy issues and taking advantage of Arnold's absences to generate massive amounts of publicity. In both the Tahoe and southern California fires, Garamendi was a fixture on TV screens throughout the state. Garamendi also recently made a bold political move by taking on the GOP's Steve Poizner, (who took his job as insurance commissioner) for Poizner's decision to drop massive coin on the anti-Prop 93 effort. That move that will endear him to establishment Democrats and give him a forum in political circles through November. Garamendi also stole two of Phil Angelides's top political aides. Be sure of this: No candidate will work harder for the nomination than Garamendi, and he's got 20+ years of chits to collect on. He does, however, need to prove that he can compete in the money department.

4. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (Last Ranking: 1)
LA's Mayor drops three notches in this quarter's rankings. Villaraigosa has been stuck in a political tar bit since the much-publicized split from his wife. Budget problems, telephone taxes, and other municipal issues have him stuck tending to the domestic home fires rather than being in the public spotlight that he so much enjoys. But don't count the Mayor out. He's playing a large role in Senator Clinton's California campaign (much of the California staff is an extension of his political operation). And perhaps sticking to the knitting of helping the city through tough budget times will pay off in a solid record of accomplishment he's yet to piece together.

5. Ex-Controller Steve Westly (Last Ranking: 5)
Westly has been quiet in the past few months, no doubt enjoying being back in business as an environmentally-focused entrepreneur. He's hitched his wagon to Illinois Senator Barack Obama, helping him fundraise; a recent event he hosted raked in big bucks and plenty of enthusiasm for Obama. Still, Westly has been noticeably quiet among the party faithful and hasn't reached out to Legislative Democrats. If he doesn't start courting the movers and shakers in the party soon, even his sizable campaign account won't buy him the love he'll need. We still like Westly's chances in a crowded field, particularly among less-financed opposition. But he lacks a base (ideological, geographic, or demographic), and he needs to begin a grassroots campaign soon to supplement a campaign that will undoubtedly rely heavily on paid media.

6. Treasurer Bill Lockyer (Last Ranking: 4)
With a hefty campaign account, high name ID, and a loyal following among Democratic activists, Lockyer is automatically considered a contender for the horseshoe. But there doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm from his corner, particularly with Brown in the race. The politically savvy Lockyer is likely to defer to Brown if he runs. If Brown shys from the race, look for Lockyer to make his move.

7. Supt. Jack O'Connell (Last Ranking: 7)
Nice guy Jack O'Connell is making the most of his office as the state's top education official. He's tackled tough issues (like the Achievement Gap) and continues to build support up and down the state for tough education reform. With the "Year of Education" on the horizon (which may translate into a battle over education funding), O'Connell is well positioned on the issue. Unfortunately, despite holding a statewide office, his name ID is low and his bank account is likely to pale in comparison with the other contenders. Still, if the California Teachers Association endorsed him early, O'Connell would be a force to reckon with.

8. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (Last Ranking: 10)
Nunez has taken his lumps lately in the press. But Prop 93 still enjoys a double-digit lead in the polls -- not withstanding everything but the kitchen sink being thrown against it -- and the Speaker could use his office as a springboard for higher office. If a health care deal is ironed out with him, Senator Perata, and the Governor in the next few weeks, Nunez will have successes to tout on the two issues that poll off the charts among California Democrats: global warming and health care. Nunez also has a hefty campaign account at his disposal. Disclosure: I'm on his staff.

9. Senator Dianne Feinstein (Last Ranking: 11)
Feinstein is shrugging off the needling by the Democratic left over her votes for Bush nominees, as she should. She remains the most popular Democrat in the state and can vacuum up votes in areas like the Central Valley where no other Democrat can. However, Feinstein seems more than happy just where she is, particularly with Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate and likely to add to their totals after the 2008 elections.

10. Former Treasurer Phil Angelides (Last Ranking: 8)
Angelides still has his eyes on the prize, and the sagging real estate market can't be good for business. Still, it's difficult to envision a scenario where Democrats would give him another shot at the Governor's chair after his ill-fated 2006 run against Schwarzenegger.