DEBATE PREVIEW: Debate Cheat Sheet

Today begins an especially big weekend… A’s and Dodgers in playoff baseball… Martin Scorsese going Goodfellas on us with the opening of The Departed… The autumn wind blowing the winless Raiders into Candlestick/Monster Park to do battle with the 49ers… And Schwazenegger v. Angelides in the gubernatorial debate smack-down…

Given all the other distractions--and assuming the Sacramento State University stage is not converted into a steel cage death match where two men will enter and one will emerge--it is pretty safe bet that most people in California will not be watching a gubernatorial debate taking place on Saturday between six and seven pm… However, for those hardy soles tuning in, here is what I would consider looking out for from the opening bell on:

• The Three Act Play: A debate is like a body at an Irish wake – in and of itself it is a pretty stiff affair but it gives a candidate and campaign an opportunity to drive a message or create news just like the body gives people an excuse to drink and be merry.  Saturday’s debate is an opportunity to create news before the debate (by talking about what you are supposedly going to be talking about during the debate vis-à-vis your opponent and getting covered in the press for it); during the debate (by talking about what you said you were going to talk about); and after the debate (by doing events to underscore that you successfully talked about the issues you said you were going to talk about). Let’s see which campaign has the most compelling "three act play."
• The Stature Gap: It will come as a surprise to most people that Angelides is taller than Arnold. The money photo shot in this debate will be the moment at the beginning of the debate when both men stride on stage, meet in the middle and shake hands. It is important for Phil to make sure that the cameras have adequate time to get a photo of him towering over Arnold – thus, I will be looking to see if during the grip and greet he holds on to Arnold’s hand long enough so that the photographer get their pictures. Angelides will need to hold on tight – as Arnold will likely be shaking his hand as if it was the top of a hot stove.
• Theme: Do the candidates have a theme that they come back to time and time again? Is this theme clearly put out beginning with the opening statements? We know Arnold’s theme will be the forward v. backward frame built on the tax argument. Will Angelides pound away on Iraq? Will he attempt to paint Arnold with the Bush brush? Or will he go after Arnold for lack of values? I always like to see who gets the Bill Clinton award for the smoothest bridge answer – quickly dispensing with the stated question and finding a way to “bridge” back to their thematic.
• Deadlines: In boxing, smart boxers steal rounds by throwing a flurry of punches in the last twenty or thirty seconds of a round (Sugar Ray Leonard stole Marvin Haggler’s belt with this ploy). In this debate, the candidate that throws a flurry of punches at the beginning will shape the coverage and headlines – as the print will have very tight deadlines to make the Sunday papers. Let’s see which candidate tries to steal the debate coverage right from the get go.
• Not the Harvard Debate Society: To the extent the debate is watched, it will be watched by some actual voters and not just partisans. These voters will watch the debate to get a sense the character of the candidates (character defined as a mosaic of elements, including vision, passion, smarts, likeability, trustworthiness, etc.) – not who has the best 32- point plan on suburban sprawl. Thus, it will be interesting to see which candidate best understands that people will not be watching the debate as if they are scoring the Harvard Debate society.
• Play for the News: For the vast majority of people who are impacted by the debate, it will be through the coverage of their local news (again, diminished in this situation because of the timing). As a candidate, you are looking to set up moments that will make it on to the news with exchanges that push your pre-determined theme (the average sound byte played by the news is between 6 and 9 seconds). To best accomplish the battle to see who gets the best 6-9 second sound bytes, it is important to have a checklist of one liners and key sentences that tie into your theme that you will want to make sure you get off – no matter what. Similarly, it is critical to have a series of one liner responses to anticipated attacks. For example, when Arnold attacks on the tax issue, will Angelides swat it back by attacking Arnold for being a tax dodger in his avoidance of state taxes by incorporating his private jet in Nevada?
• Going For Broke: Will Angelides use this one moment when the two candidates are up on stage to create a major moment in the campaign. Would Anglides hold up a legal brief written by a prominent legal scholar that could be filed to get the California National Guard out of Iraq and challenge Arnold to sign it? Could Angelides unveil a letter from Congresswoman (and Speaker to be) Pelosi vowing to pass legislation to bring back the National Guard? Will Angelides bring up a tape recorder and play key excerpts from the tape inadvertently made public by Arnold’s office that reveals Arnold’s deepest thoughts?
• Winner v. Loser: In most political debates, it is rare for a candidate to “win” a debate. When there is a clear winner and loser – it is usually because one person shoots themselves in the foot and the other candidate has the presence to jump all over the mistake. At the presidential level, you have had Gerald Ford prematurely emancipating Poland… George Bush (41) looking at his watch… Al Gore’s sighs… John Kerry talking about Dick Cheney’s daughter… These are all mistakes that are made by the candidate – but they were also all mistakes the other candidate immediately seized upon and exploited. Will someone make a mistake on Saturday – and, if so, will the other side jump on it.

If Arnold makes a mistake and Phil jumps on it, life in this campaign could get more interesting (especially considering the surprising news that the Democrats have a $10 million cash on hand advantage over Arnold and the Republicans).

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