DEBATE PREVIEW: Who Won? Who Lost? Here's a Debate Scorecard

In coordination with our right-wing extremist friends at The Flash Report, we take a special look tomorrow's gubernatorial face-off at CSUS. See their take on the "debate" at www.flashreport.org.
  
Barring a George Allen-like macaca moment by the Governor, it's going to be difficult for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides to "win" Saturday's face-off with the Governor. From the get-go, everything seems to be stacked against Angelides -- from the time slot (opposite Major League Baseball playoffs and the Cal game) to the moderator (an ex-Republican legislator) to the format (no questions from the media).
 
Nonetheless, Phil needs to do two things effectively:

• Define himself to California voters on his terms, and
  
• Paint the Governor as a flip-flopping politician who has broken promise after promise and can't be trusted for a second term.

That's not easy in 56 minutes. Particularly against an opponent who has spent his entire career on the other side of a camera.
 
But it's now or never for Angelides. And he knows it. And so does the Governor's campaign, which is simply hoping to get out of the Sac State campus unscathed.
 
After Schwarzenegger's inappropriate comments yesterday on Mexican-Americans, it's clear to see why. The Governor's campaign is in lock down mode. Anytime the Governor strays from his script, it's news. With a double digit lead, Team Arnold has deployed a classic Rose Garden strategy.
 
Unfortunately, the format of this joint appearance doesn't allow for the candidates to utter anything but sound bites. So expect to see Schwarzenegger spit out a few funny lines, look gubernatorial, and use his charm  to smooze his way through the hour.
 
Angelides, on the other hand, has a much more difficult task. He's got to compete with Schwarzenegger's on-camera charisma while looking solid on the issues. He needs to come off as likeable. At the same time, he needs to put the Governor on the defensive without looking like a chihuahua on speed.
 
Clearly each candidate has their work cut out for them. So here's a scorecard you can use to measure up how each candidate performs:
 
Great Expectations
 
Both campaigns have been downplaying their chances of victory in this debate.
 
On Wednesday, Gov. Schwarzenegger managed to say with a straight face that he hadn't bothered practicing. Meanwhile, both the LA Times and San Francisco Chronicle reported that Angelides was roughed up during debate prep sessions more than a week ago, a likely leak by his campaign to lowball expectations about his performance.
 
But the bottom line is this: most observers expect Schwarzenegger to "win" if he's able to walk away from the exchange unscathed and dominate the discussion with his commanding stage presence. Meanwhile, a scrappy effort by Angelides to focus the discussion as a referendum on the Schwarzenegger governorship -- rather than the Democrat's proposals on a middle class tax cut and tax increases on the wealthy -- may be enough breath new life into the Angelides campaign. The media is desparate for the race to heat up during the home stretch is looking for a defining moment where the race will tighten.
 
Score 10 points for Angelides if he defies conventional wisdom that he won't be able to hold his own on the stage with Schwarzenegger.

Score 20 points if there's a Schwarzenegger gaffe that turns the campaign upside down.

Score 10 points for Schwarzenegger if the debate centers on taxes, the economy, and a "new direction" for the state and he escapes gaffe-free.
 
Fact Checks
 
There's an old saying that "campaigns are won and lost in the library." Debate night is when the research and press teams of each campaign prove their mettle.
 
Each campaign has been given a floor in the building above the debate to house its rapid response team. Each will be ready to pounce on every word each candidate says. There's also a "spin room" where each campaign will send its media representatives to convince reporters, bloggers, and pundits that their side won the evening's exchange the moment after the moderator says "Thank you all for coming. Good night."
 
The Bush/Cheney-trained Schwarzenegger campaign has built a reputation for the prowess of its rapid response team. Meanwhile, Angelides' team is seeking to get vindication after its bumbling of the release of the Governor's private tapes.
 
Score 2 points for the campaign that is able to outmanuever and blanket the media in the spin room with fact checks undermining the statements of the other candidate.
 
Firing Up the Base
 
Schwarzenegger needs to reach out to independent voters and peel Democrats away from Angelides while appealing to his Republican base. He's been marvelously successful in triangulating during the campaign. But on Saturday he also needs to reassure the GOP he's one of them, particularly in the wake of his snub of President Bush this week.
 
Angelides, in contrast, needs to shore up his Democratic base and reach independent voters. He also needs to fire up Latinos and African-Americans that have been, until now, unusually lukewarm in their support of the Democratic nominess.
 
Score 5 points for Schwarzenegger when he talks about securing the border with Mexico, holding the line on taxes, and supporting Jessica's Law. Add 2 bonus points if he's able to do that while invoking his legislative lovefest with Speaker Fabian Nunez and Senate President Don Perata.
 
Score 5 points for Angelides if he attacks Schwarzenegger's anti-choice position on Prop 85, 180 degree flip-flops on immigration, and lack of minority appointments. Add two points if he's unrelentess is effectively connecting the Governor with President Bush. Subtract three points if he brings up the Iraq War more than three times in the hour.
  
Charisma Factor
 
During the recall debate, Schwarzenegger mocked Cruz Bustamante and Ariana Huffington with a charm offensive each time they went at him. He's likely to brush off attacks from a hard-charging Angelides with the same tactic.
 
But as an incumbent governor, Schwarzenegger won't be able to get away with just jokes. He needs to show that he can go beyond scripted soundbites and forcefully defend policy decisions with facts and figures.
 
Widely viewed as a policy wonk, Angelides needs to show off his warm and fuzzy side. The best kept secret of this campaign is that Phil is a funny guy who's not afraid to poke fun at himself. Aside from showing he's not wooden, Angelides has to display his passion for Democratic values while trying to draw blood from the Governor.
 
Score 2 points for Schwarzenegger for each time he portrays himself as an outsider, fends off an Angelides attack with a joke, and pokes fun of himself by invoking one of his box office flops. Add another 2 points if he's able to cite budget numbers.
 
Score 2 points for Angelides when he talks about his family, his immigrant success story, or lands  a punch with an unexpected witty comment. Deduct one point if he says "When I was at Harvard ..."
 
Girly Men
 
To date the only advantage the Angelides campaign has had in the polls has been with women voters. Phil needs to continue to speak their language, focusing on health care, kids, and family values.
 
Schwarzenegger needs to back away from his macho image. He too needs to speak the language of the Soccer Mom.
 
Score two points for Schwarzenegger for each time he mentions Maria Shriver and his efforts to expand Healthy Families.
 
Score two points for Angelides when he talks about his three daughters and goes on the offensive about his proposal to bolster Jessica's Law and oppose Prop 85.
 
Quote Du Jour
 
Each candidate will be armed with soundbites tailor-made to sum up their message and their attack on the other candidate. The zinger of the night needs to be delivered flawlessly and matter-of-factly. Schwarzenegger's acting abilities and Hollywood writers give him a big advantage here.
 
Score five points for the candidate that hits a home run with a one-liner. Deduct two points from Schwarzenegger if he says the word "taxes" more than 20 times. Deduct two points from Angelides if he invokes the cornball  "BS factor" to describe the Bush/Schwarzenegger connection.
 
You Look Marvelous
 
Image is everything.
 
Angelides needs to connect with voters. Many haven't seen him before and know little about him. Schwarzenegger needs to show that he's able to do more than act.
 
But it's not only what they say, it's how they look. Remember Al Gore's sighs during the 2000 debate? Or how he invaded Bush's space?
 
Both candidates will be seated at tables at some distance for each other. But Angelides has to take Sen. Feinstein's advice not to smirk. Schwarzenegger has to stay focused and upbeat.
 
Score five points for Schwarzenegger for looking gubernatorial and sounding optimistic.
 
Score five points for Angelides for appearing confident and being able to compete with one of the world''s most popular film stars.
  
The Knockout Punch
 
Remember the late Sen. Lloyd Bentsen's knockout blow of Dan Quayle with his "I knew Jack Kennedy. You're no Jack Kennedy" line? Those kind of KO's come rarely in debates, but there's always the potential.
 
Down 10 to 17 points in the polls, Angelides may have some tricks up his sleeve that he's willing to take a gamble on during Saturday's appearance. He needs to leave voters with something along the lines of Reagan's 1980 debate line of "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" -- something that hits home and makes the election an up and down vote on the incumbent.
 
Schwarzenegger, on the other hand, will likely be playing it safe. He'll be satisfied with an hour of rope-a-dope.
 
Score 10 points for Angelides if he makes the Saturday night appearance something that's still being talked about on Monday, or if debate excerpts keep running on "YouTube" beyond Saturday night.
 
So get out the popcorn and enjoy.

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